How to build a business assumption map before researching cases

Turn the plan into statements that could be wrong

Start with the proposed action and ask what must be true for it to work. Write specific statements about customer need, willingness to change behavior, delivery capability and the economics of serving the customer. Avoid statements so broad that almost any outcome could support them.

For example, “customers want convenience” is difficult to test. “The intended customer will complete this task without a live consultation” gives you an observable behavior. This is an illustrative statement, not a claim about your customers.

Rank consequence and uncertainty separately

For each assumption, ask how damaging it would be if false and how strong the current evidence is. Use a simple written rationale rather than a precise score you cannot defend. A critical but well-supported assumption may need less immediate research than a critical unknown.

Include dependencies. If a delivery method works only after a partner grants access, testing demand without considering that access can create a misleading sense of progress. Make prerequisite assumptions visible.

Use cases to challenge, not certify, the map

For a high-priority assumption, find a case where a similar condition mattered. Ask what evidence establishes that condition and what differs from your setting. A company’s success cannot certify your willingness-to-pay assumption.

Actively search for a counterexample. If similar demand produced a poor outcome elsewhere, examine whether fulfillment, timing or customer switching costs explain the difference. Record what remains unresolved after the comparison.

Assign each assumption a next learning action

Choose an action that can change your decision: inspect a primary source, observe a customer task, test a limited offer or measure delivery effort. Set the decision threshold before seeing the result, while acknowledging where a qualitative judgment is necessary.

Review the map when new evidence arrives. Mark assumptions as supported within a scope, contradicted or still unknown. Avoid calling an assumption proven forever; the customer, offer and operating conditions can change.

Use this worksheet for your decision

Copy this into your notes. Leave unknowns visible instead of filling gaps with guesses.

Proposed action:
Necessary assumption:
Consequence if false:
Current evidence and scope:
Dependencies:
Supporting case:
Counterexample:
Next learning action:
Decision threshold and review date:

Find evidence in the archives

Choose a supporting case and a counterexample with a different outcome. Read their sources and check whether their conditions match yours.

• startups.center
• mistake.club

Cases to practice with (read and check the underlying sources):

• Hipcamp pivoted from campground directory to private-land marketplace (interview)
• Tyson shut Yappah, its first Innovation Lab snack, 17 months after launch