Name the assumption that could break the business
A startup idea usually contains several claims: someone has a problem, they will change behavior to solve it, you can reach them, and you can deliver the solution at an acceptable cost. Treat those as separate assumptions. “People like the concept” does not establish any of them on its own.
Strategyzer recommends identifying critical assumptions before selecting an experiment. For this workflow, make a short risk list and choose the assumption whose failure would make your current plan least viable. Record what you believe today and what observation would contradict it.
Search for the business mechanism, not just the sector
If you are building a marketplace, look for cases about acquiring both sides, matching supply with demand and resolving disputes. A marketplace in a different category may expose a more relevant risk than a company selling a similar product through a different model. If your idea depends on recurring use, look for retention mechanisms and switching costs.
Read both starts and failures. For every appealing example, write one condition that helped it and one condition that could make the same approach fail. Use the startup archive to examine how businesses began and the mistakes archive to challenge the attractive story. The result is a set of questions for your own customers, not a prediction that their behavior will match the cases.
Replace opinions with a recent concrete episode
An interview can begin with the last time the person encountered the problem: what triggered it, what they did, what they tried before and what the workaround cost them in time or money. These are proposed interview prompts, not a diagnostic scale. Avoid turning the conversation into a presentation of your solution before you understand the current behavior.
Separate the user, the buyer and the person who approves a change. A tool can be useful to one person and still face an adoption barrier elsewhere. Record contradictory answers, including people who handle the problem satisfactorily without a new product. Do not reinterpret every objection as proof that the market needs education.
Design the next commitment, then decide
A prototype, a manual service trial or a small paid pilot can test different assumptions. Choose the method that creates evidence about your current risk; do not choose the most impressive artifact. For an illustrative scheduling tool, completing a real scheduling task with a target user may teach more about usability than collecting favorable comments on a landing page.
Before the test, define what counts as a meaningful action, the conditions of the test and what you will do for a weak result. Cases help you ask sharper questions. Evidence from your own target customers determines whether the idea deserves the next investment.
Use this worksheet for your decision
Copy this into your notes. Leave unknowns visible instead of filling gaps with guesses.
Customer and situation: Current workaround: User / buyer / approver: Critical assumption: Relevant supporting case: Contradicting case: Interview question about past behavior: Small experiment and meaningful action: Continue / change / stop condition:Download the text worksheet ↓
Find evidence in the archives
Choose a supporting case and a counterexample with a different outcome. Read their sources and check whether their conditions match yours.
Cases to practice with (read and check the underlying sources):
Method references
Bring your question to the cases
Search a company or topic in the app, read the cases and ask follow-up questions to compare approaches.